Category: Current Events

Out of Labor Day and Out of the Gates

Labor Day weekend marks the kickoff of campaign season entering full swing and the Left wasted no time in taking the gloves off with what amounts to high-school gossip, i.e. unconfirmable rumors. As the polls and models continue to predict a likely Biden win, prediction markets and betting odds tell a different story. What’s the cause of this discrepancy?

Though I’ve pondered the possibilities elsewhere, perhaps the biggest flaw in both the models and prediction markets is the idea that either Biden or Trump will win. In my opinion, given the environment and posturing of both sides, the most likely outcome is a disputed election. In fact, both sides are already arming their supporters to reject the election results – the Democrats through pushing the idea of the ‘Red Mirage‘, and the Republicans through stoking fear of massive voter fraud stemming from mail-in balloting.

The Truth in Each (Potential) Lie

On the surface, both claims are believable in that they’re both prognostications about what might happen. Neither claim can be disproven or proven since both are claims about events in the future which, by definition, haven’t happened yet. Trump’s voter fraud claim is pretty straightforward; almost every candidate trying to question the results of an election claims fraud. This isn’t to say the claims are unfounded (sometimes those claims are true). It’s simply to state that disputing an election based on fraud is nothing unique to America in 2020.

The Red Mirage is considerably more interesting. It’s based on data and projected voting habits and makes a convincing argument of how a Biden victory could, initially, appear to be a victory for Trump. This is a contingency worth exploring and seems possible. It’s speculative, of course; at its core, the Red Mirage is nothing more than crystal ball prognosticating masquerading as data science. However, it’s convenient that the Red Mirage is also what would appear if local (Democratic) officials tried to put their thumb on the scale for Biden or steal the election outright.

The Red Mirage ‘Conspiracy’

Given the Left’s tendency to dismiss anything remotely pro-Trump as a conspiracy theory and parade ‘experts’ like Brian Stelter and Jeffrey Toobin out to ‘debunk’ them, the idea I’m proposing certainly reeks of a far-fetched, right-wing conspiracy theory ala Alex Jones. Technically, it’s not. A conspiracy, and hence a ‘conspiracy theory’, relies on conspirators – i.e. those working in coordination to achieve a common aim. What we’ve seen from the Resistance (and what the Red Mirage Conspiracy entails) are groups of similarly motivated but operationally independent local officials acting towards a common goal.

In other words, the model for the Democrats to steal the election fits the decentralized ‘non-conspiracies’ we’ve seen repeatedly throughout the Trump administration. Normally, I’d be somewhat skeptical of claims (especially pre-de facto) that either side is trying to steal the election. However, between spying on a presidential campaign, Judge Sullivan’s conduct during the Flynn episode, and the selective prosecutions of Soros-backed district attorneys and mayors, local election officials using their official capacity to serve partisan interests is no longer ‘beyond the pale’. It’s now par for the course.

As such, I’m no longer inclined to give anybody (right or left, frankly) the benefit of the doubt.

Removing the log

Of course, it would be hypocritical to criticize Bloomberg’s boys for trying to project the future with their ‘Red Mirage’ conjectures while simultaneously trying to project a Democratic attempt to steal the election. The future is the future – nobody knows how this election will play out, and thinking about the future deterministically (i.e., this WILL happen) as opposed to probabilistically (i.e. there is an X % chance this will happen) causes more harm than good. With any predictions about the future, there is only one correct response – maybe.

What’s interesting about the competing claims of a Red Mirage and voter fraud is that they operate independently of one another. The existence of a Red Mirage on election day could occur without voting fraud, and voting fraud wouldn’t necessarily result in a Red Mirage. Essentially, the combination breaks down into four scenarios.

1- Voting Fraud Results in a Red Mirage

Basically, the mess to end all messes. The early election results show a sizeable Trump victory; however, over the next days and weeks, the map slowly turns blue as the Democrats – supported by progressive activists masquerading as local officials – ‘find’ votes for Biden. Maybe they get caught, maybe they successfully steal the election, but given that Trump likes to complain about fraud when there is none, I doubt he and his supporters are going to fail to notice ACTUAL fraud.

2- A Legitimate Red Mirage

This happens exactly as the Bloombergites predict (hey, a broken clock and all that). Biden voters, probably still hiding in their basements, all mail their ballots in while Trump voters all vote in person. Election night results look good for Trump, but it quickly becomes clear that Biden will overtake him. This is similar to how CA-39 played out in 2018 – election night looked good for Young Kim, but Gil Cisneros overtook her with late-arriving ballots.

With absolutely no evidence of fraud, Donald Trump probably claims fraud anyway. Depending on the margin of victory (and the conduct of election officials), his supporters may or may not listen.

3- Voting Fraud with no Mirage

Though we have results on election night, there are widespread accusations of fraud and/or other reasons to dispute the results. With no clear winner, the fight goes to the courts and, likely, the streets. The aftermath starts out like 2000 on steroids, and it’s anyone’s guess where we go from there.

4- No Fraud, No Mirage

For all the bluster and pessimism, I still think this is the most likely option. The election provides an answer on election night, and there is no evidence of widespread fraud. The election plays out a lot like 2004, with both sides preparing for an extended fight only for the voters to provide a definite answer to preempt the bluster of the political class.

Whether the political class accepts the results this time, however, would remain to be seen.

Conclusion

Though the idea of a Red Mirage sounds (and is) a legitimate possibility, given Bloomberg’s “Stop-Trump-at-Any-Cost” mentality, it’s difficult to overlook that it also serves as a convenient smokescreen for more sinister actions from Bloomberg’s allies.

People Die. Get Over It.

The global reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic, not only the outrage in Brazil over Bolsonaro’s ‘callous’ response, but also criticisms across the globe that governments ‘do more’ to stop the outbreak, forces me to ask an uncomfortable question I’d hoped never to have to ask a nation/globe/internet of politically aware and, most frighteningly, active people a question that should have an obvious answer: You know you’re going to die, right?

Don’t get me wrong; I’m not downplaying or dismissing the virus. It’s kind of surprising how rarely that happens when you listen to someone’s entire argument instead of just the parts that confirm your biases (Jim Acosta, cough). However, even in the United States, where Donald Trump may be the first President ever to intentionally tank the economy in an election year, there have been nonstop criticisms of his handling of the crisis – so much so, in fact, that only about half of Americans approve.

Of course, some of the criticisms are valid. Trump could have done more. He also could have done less, ala Bolsonaro, or gone full-out Modi, who has been blasted for the heavy-handedness of his response. The point is that, whatever the government’s response, there will always be critics and vested interests who want both more and less done simultaneously.

But before we return to crucifying Vanessa Hudgens for reminding her followers of one of the most basic facts of life, let’s have a little bit of perspective. The worst estimates say about 2M Americans will die; our population is currently 327.3M and counting. Without resorting to a calculator, I can comfortably say that’s less than one percent of the population, many of whom, given their preconditions and comorbidities, are likely to be dead within ten years, anyway. Yes, the virus can kill the young as well; so what? I knew an incredibly healthy 29-year-old who dropped dead of a heart attack. Shit happens.

‘Siege Mentality’ and White Privilege

I’m not complaining about the ‘siege mentality’ employed by most governments, per se. Though I’d rather nut up, roll the dice, and mourn our losses, I do recognize that this is a democracy. If everyone else wants to be a complete pansy, so be it. I guess I’ll tuck my tail and run with the rest of you. But as we lock ourselves in our ivory towers watching “Tiger King”, let’s check our ‘white privilege’ a little.

limousine liberalism

It’s easy enough to lock yourself in your apartment for a month when you have the financial wherewithal to do so. The degree to which some insist on complaining about their ‘mental health’ tells me just how weak and pampered the urban American populace has become. However, while I have to wait to make my next business move, somebody else (a single, immigrant mother, perhaps) needs that money to eat. For some people, not working means not eating. The smart thing for them, given the hard choices they face in life, might be to take their chances with the virus so their kid can eat.

The ‘callous’ and ‘heartless’ policies of Bolsonaro and those who want to reopen the economy give them that choice. The policies pushed by the left, i.e. shutting down the economy to save lives, make the decision for them. I’m not arguing either solution is right or wrong; they both have trade-offs, and either is a defensible course of action. However, let’s not pretend that we’re saints as we shut down and destroy the lives of the poor so that the middle class can wait out the pandemic in comfort.